Tinubu Will Win Highest Votes, Might Have Run-Off With Obi - SBM Intelligence

 For the first time since the 1960s, there are 3 competitive political blocs largely along the old regional divides. 

Hence the latest survey, which was commissioned by @EiENigeria and conducted by @sbmintelligence, did not provide us with a clear front-runner.

The first 2023 election survey conducted by SBM was published in July 2022 and showed that only 41% of registered voters had collected their Permanent Voters Cards (PVCs). (IMAGE 1)

This assumption of low turnout fed into our December 2022 projections, based on a 7,000-respondent survey. (Image 2)

The assumption of low turnout changed when, in January 2023, our 6,500-respondent survey on PVC collection showed a remarkable increase in PVC collection - 97%.

We believe that the surge in voter awareness done by 
@inecnigeria and CSOs like Enough is Enough (EiE), through their #RSVP Campaign, have driven voter interest and bucked the low turnout trend in #Nigeria's elections.

Many respondents were clear about whom they felt would win the presidential contest in their state but were not straightforward about their candidate preferences. Furthermore, many registered voters told us that ethnicity and religion would play an important part in their choice.

This runs contrary to recent commentary, which suggests that #NigeriaDecides2023 will be #Nigeria’s first post-modern election, where substantial issues will determine voter choice.

The respondents also said that they expect vote buying despite recent technological and legislative changes to curb that. While an overwhelming majority of respondents claim that they won’t sell their vote, more than a third have experienced vote buying in the past.

The data suggest that @PeterObi and @Atiku could garner enough votes over a sufficient number of states across four of the country’s six geopolitical zones to meet the constitutional requirement of scoring 25% in at least 24 states. (Image 3 and 4)